Compared with private driving automatic driving, in terms of freight logistics may be faster in high predictability of commercialized shipping trunk road, will be the primary self-driving technology application the best scenario.

      When it comes to the development of self-driving cars, we may think of freight and logistics first. Each year, U.S. trucks load nearly $700 billion in goods, a figure that is only 70 percent of the weight of its cargo. In the short term, this is why driverless technology is more important to commercial vehicles. Although many people have predicted the proportion of human driving and traffic accidents and loss, most people still think that unmanned driving is very far away.

      Recently, the center for automotive research in Ann Arbor, mich., said that fully self-driving cars with L4 and L5 (SAE) levels would not account for more than 4% of new-car sales by 2030. By 2040, its share may reach 55%.

      Since last year, almost half of America's 26 states and the district of Columbia have instituted autonomous driving regulations, according to the research institute. This also allows us to start thinking about how we can achieve autonomous driving and what are the requirements for autonomous driving?

      Autonomous driving: where is the economic return, where is the first?

      There are two forms of human transport: the flow of life and the flow of goods. Private ownership and driving will always exist, which is the demand for life. People drive cars to complete life or convenience activities such as skiing, cycling, kayaking, rowing, etc. The flow of goods accounts for a large part of human traffic, and this is one of the scenarios that we can see of autonomous driving. Autonomous driving takes place first in areas where there is economic return, freight and logistics.

      If you're a comic or science fiction fan, you should know the Logan in x-men. The story takes place in 2029, when the movie begins with Logan driving a Chrysler limousine from the future. If you ask Waymo or Uber, I think they will say that a limousine can drive itself after a decade or so. Maybe there will be a traffic field between different cars, and people who don't want to be known about their location drive their cars, and it's hard to track them right away.

      At the back of the film, Logan helped a horse escape from a speeding trailer on the highway, and the two or three large containers that were connected to each other were actually autonomous. There is no cab, no driver, no one involved, and these trucks are like L5 fully self-driving cars, moving at triple-digit speed.

      Although car makers and tech workers are now crowding into light cars, the real use of self-driving cars will start with commercial vehicles. Among them, economy is the main reason.

      Input-output accounting

      Laser radar is an important sensor in autonomous vehicle. Velodyne recently cut the price of its lidar to around $4,000, cutting it by half. The best-selling car in the United States is the ford f-series pickup truck, which typically starts at $35,000, and the best car sold is Toyota RAV4, which starts at about $25,000.

      After Velodyne's price is lowered, the cost of lidar could increase by 11 percent on ford trucks and 16 percent on RAV4. How many consumers are willing to pay extra for an unfamiliar technology to do something they think they can do well? Not much now.

      Many managers of trucks and trucking companies disagree. Keen managers can accurately calculate these extra costs and assess the efficiency gains and rewards that can be gained from this emerging technology. If this returns to a certain level, then you can use it. This is the economic driver of the use of self-driving trucks.

      As the number of sensors and related equipment and software prices will gradually decrease, the return cycle will be shortened and the industry will accelerate. Eventually, the scale of the manufacturing economy will reduce costs and the technology will quickly enter the consumer market.

      It is imperative to drive the truck automatically.

      The change also occurred at the last mile of delivery. According to Jane's group, e-commerce accounts for 16 percent of U.S. retail sales in 2017, up 6 percent from 2007. Many predict this rapid growth will continue.

      Vans carry local stores and stores, electronics from global electronics retailers and food from neighborhood suppliers. Many companies are considering using autonomous driving to solve huge freight problems. Recently, in San Mateo, a start-up Udelv used a customized package with a camera and lidar to deliver Draeger's Market food, completing a three-mile journey on public roads. At the moment, Waymo, ford, Daimler and many other companies are also trying to solve the last mile of automated delivery.

      Now automated driving lead to one of the most attractive place and automated driving a taxi, this is Waymo initial direction, they tested the related service in phoenix, recently gm also said it plans to launch next year automated driving a taxi service.

      After cancelling the driver, the cost per passenger mile will also be reduced. In Los Angeles, where cars cost $1.55 per mile, the irs has reduced the cost of car owners, about 54 cents a mile. The faster an autonomous taxi passes these Numbers, the faster it can expand and expand its application.

      But for now, the services are experimental and cars are restricted to urban areas. Freight is a real change, and it can be very slow at first, and don't expect to see the Logan's truck speeding through the highway. As the national heavy duty truck fleet use automated driving technology, every New Year models equipped with more automation technology, make it easier for the truck driver driving, at the same time improve the efficiency and safety.

      According to the federal government's working hours, the truckers can't drive for more than 12 hours during a 14-hour workday, and the driver must have a 10-hour commute. This is not the same as in Canada, where a truck driver can't drive for more than 13 hours on a 16-hour workday. The economic impact of the driver-assist system is that American truck drivers can work longer hours each day than Canada.

      The government pays more attention to the trucking industry, and if it can prove that self-driving technology can really improve security, there is an opportunity to push for more driving time by breaking management restrictions. America, the transfer of a huge machine purchase every year hundreds of thousands of trucks, if its through technical test, can run for a long time, these are automated driving technology in efficiency improvements.

      The transformation of the truck industry.

      Autonomous driving technology liberates hands, unlimited mileage, similar to tesla's Autopilot, a truck driver can drive vehicles on the highway for a long time. By calculation when it accelerates, brakes, steering, self-driving cars will also be more fuel-efficient, predicting cruise control can judge for themselves the next stage of road conditions, decide where is the acceleration, where is the most economical way to sailing along the coast.

      The driver only needs to control the first and last mile, and after entering the highway, the truck is in full swing. You don't have to go through downtown Chicago, you can sleep most of the time, and continue to work after the delivery. To plan a special path, however, such as 1-5 miles from Bakersfield to Sacramento road, the truck can not leave the driver, outside the city's central warehouse, may require drivers to guide its drive to the destination.

      In addition, we'll see two shifts, one is that trucks are starting to become an automated device; The second is that traditional truck drivers are beginning to act as cargo managers or cargo managers.

      I've heard one saying that the future of the United States will reduce the work of 3.5 million truck drivers. I don't quite agree with this estimate -- the profession will change, but it doesn't mean it will disappear.

      Similarly, the data cited by the American freight association is somewhat exaggerated. According to Trucks.com, there aren't many drivers in the United States, and the bureau of labor statistics says the number of full-time truckers is around 2 million. Still more job vacancies in the short term, the freight industry, the driver, because there are not many people are willing to do the work, this line has no young people, even the automation can help fill the gap, and therefore, shipping industry has automatic driving economic development.

      In fact, we are going through a technological change, and we are not yet able to determine the exact time frame and the impact on the market. By 2030, that will be clear. But if you look, who is the most economically motivated to use driverless technology? It's not the farmers who drive to work, or the parents who take their kids to soccer, but the people who carry goods from our ports, farms, factories, and e-commerce centers.

      China logistics and purchasing network